A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Both writes two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will succeed here and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
